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The economy works like a simple machine. But many people don't understand it — or they don't agree on how it works — and this has led to a lot of needlesseconomic suffering.
Though it's unconventional, it has helped me to anticipate and sidestep the global financial crisis, and has worked well for me for over 30 years. Let's begin.
Though the economy might seem complex, it works in a simple, mechanical way.
虽然经济看起来可能很复杂，但它其实是以一种简单、机械的方式运作的。
📝 词汇精讲：
in a ... way：以一种……方式
mechanical：机械式的、像机器一样的（强调经济运作的规律性、结构性，就像机器一样）
It's made up of a few simple parts and a lot of simple transactions that are repeated over and over again a zillion times.
它是由几个简单的部分，以及大量不断重复的简单交易组成的——重复了无数次。
📝 词汇精讲：
It's made up of：是由……组成的 👉 原型是 make up（构成），被动变成 be made up of
例：The human body is made up of cells. 人体是由细胞组成的。
transaction：交易
over and over again：一遍又一遍地，反复发生
a zillion times：无数次，成千上万次
These transactions areabove all elsedriven byhuman nature, and they create 3 main forces that drive the economy.
这些交易最根本地是由人性所驱动的，它们产生了推动经济的三大主要力量。
📝 词汇精讲：
are driven by：被……驱动 👉 动词原形是 drive，引申义是“推动、驱动”，用于表达行为背后的动力
例：The company is driven by innovation. 这家公司以创新为驱动力。
human nature：人性（人类本性）
above all else：最重要的是、首先是
Number 1: Productivity growth 第一：生产力增长
Number 2: The Short term debt cycle 第二：短期债务周期
And Number 3: The Long term debt cycle 第三：长期债务周期
We'll look at these three forces and how laying them on top of each other creates a good template for tracking economic movements and figuring out what's happening now.
the building block：构成块、基本单元、基础要素 👉 这是一个常用比喻，意指“构成更大系统的基本部分”，类似“砖块之于建筑”。
All cycles and all forces in an economy are driven by transactions.
经济中的所有周期和所有力量，都是由交易推动的。
So, if we can understand transactions, we can understand the whole economy.
所以，如果我们能理解交易，我们就能理解整个经济。
A market consists of all the buyers and all the sellers making transactions for the same thing.
一个市场由所有买家和所有卖家组成，他们围绕同一种商品进行交易。
For example, there is a wheat market, a car market, a stock market and markets for millions of things.
例如，有小麦市场、汽车市场、股票市场，还有成千上万种东西的市场。
💡
Ray Dalio 在这里继续强调一个关键点：每一种商品或资产，只要有人买、有人卖，就会形成一个市场。
An economy consists of all of the transactions in all of its markets.
一个经济体由其所有市场中的所有交易构成。
If you add up the total spending and the total quantity sold in all of the markets, you have everything you need to know to understand the economy. It's just that simple.
如果你把所有市场中的总支出和总销售数量加总起来，你就拥有了理解经济所需的全部信息。就是这么简单。
People, businesses, banks and governments all engage in transactions the way I just described: exchanging money and credit for goods, services and financial assets.
人们、企业、银行和政府都以我刚才描述的方式进行交易：用现金和信用交换商品、服务以及金融资产。
📝 词汇精讲：
engage in：表示 “参与、从事” 某项活动
The biggest buyer and seller is the government, which consists of two important parts: a Central Government that collects taxes and spends money......and a Central Bank, which is different from other buyers and sellers because it controls the amount of money and credit in the economy.
It does this byinfluencing interest rates and printing new money.
它通过调节利率和印刷新货币来实现这一点。
📝 词汇精讲：
by influencing：通过影响，调节...
interest rates 利率（银行贷款或存款的利息比例）
For these reasons, as we'll see, the Central Bank is an important player in the flow of Credit.
基于这些原因，正如我们接下来会看到的，中央银行是信用流动中的重要角色。
📝 词汇精讲：
an important player：一个重要参与者
in the flow of Credit：在信用流动中（指经济中借贷、信贷资金的流转）
I want you to pay attention to credit. Credit is the most important part of the economy, and probably the least understood.
我希望你关注信用。信用是经济中最重要的部分，同时也可能是最不被理解的部分。
It is the most important part because it is the biggest and most volatile part.
它是最重要的部分，因为它既是最大的部分，也是最不稳定的部分。
📝 词汇精讲：
volatile /ˈvɑːlət(ə)l/ 指波动大，易变动，有时剧烈变化
Just like buyers and sellers go to the market to make transactions, so do lenders and borrowers.
正如买家和卖家去市场进行交易一样，借贷双方（贷款人和借款人）也会这样做。
Lenders usually want to make their money into more money and borrowers usually want to buy something they can't afford, like a house or car or they want to invest in something like starting a business.
Those who are invented and hard-working raise their productivity and their living standards faster than those who are complacent and lazy, but that isn't necessarily true over the short run.
com·pla·cent /kəmˈpleɪs(ə)nt/ too satisfied with yourself or with a situation, so that you do not feel that any change is necessary 自满的；自鸣得意的；
over the short run：短期内，指在短时间内，通常是指未来几天、几周或几个月内。
Productivity matters most in the long run, but credit matters most in the short run.
从长期来看，生产力最重要；但从短期来看，信贷最关键。
📝 词汇精讲：
in the long run：在长期来看：指的是某个事物或决策在未来较长的时间内的影响和结果。
in the short run：在短期来看：通常用于描述某个计划、决策或行动在开始阶段的影响和效果。
This is because productivity growth doesn't fluctuate much, so it's not a big driver of economic swings.
这是因为生产力的增长波动不大，因此它不是经济波动的主要推动力。
📝 词汇精讲：
fluc·tu·ate /ˈflʌktʃueɪt/ to change frequently in size, amount, quality, etc., especially from one extreme to another （大小、数量、质量等）波动；（在…之间）起伏不定
例：fluctuating prices 波动的价格
例：During the crisis, oil prices fluctuated between $20 and $40 a barrel. 在危机时期，每桶石油价格在20元至40元之间波动。
a big driver：这里的 “driver” 不是 “司机”，而是 “推动力、驱动因素” 的意思。
economic swings：经济波动，比如经济增长与衰退之间的起伏变化。
Debt is — because it allows us to consume more than we produce when we acquire it and it forces us to consume less than we produce when we pay it back.
In this chapter we are going to step back and look at these three big forces and how they interact to make up our experiences.
在本章中，我们将退一步，审视这三大力量，以及它们如何相互作用，构成我们的经历。
📝 词汇精讲：
step back：退后：为了冷静和理性地思考和做出决策
interact/ˌɪntərˈækt/ two or more things have an effect on each other 相互影响；相互作用
make up：组成，构成：将不同的部分组合在一起形成整体。
As mentioned, swings around the line are not due to how much innovation or hard work there is, they're primarily due to how much credit there is.
如前所述，围绕基线的波动并不是因为创新或努力的多少，而主要是由于信贷的多少。
Let's for a second imagine an economy without credit.
让我们暂时想象一个没有信贷的经济。
In this economy, the only way I can increase my spending is to increase my income, which requires me to be more productive and do more work. Increased productivity is the only way for growth.
When you buy a beer from a bartender with cash, the transaction is settled immediately.
当你用现金从酒保那里买啤酒时，交易会立即完成。
But when you buy a beer with credit, it's like starting a bartab. You're saying you promise to pay in the future.
但当你用信贷买啤酒时，就像在酒吧开了一个账单。你是在说，你承诺以后会付款。
📝 词汇精讲：
bar tab：是酒吧里先消费、后付款的账单，顾客可以点多杯酒，最后结账时统一付钱。
Together you and the bartender create an asset and a liability. You just created credit. Out of thin air.
你和酒保一起创造了资产和负债。你刚刚凭空创造了信贷。
📝 词汇精讲：
out of thin air： 凭空；无中生有
It's not until you pay the bar tab later that the asset and liability disappear, the debt goes away and the transaction is settled.
直到你后来付清酒吧账单，资产和负债才会消失，债务才会还清，交易才算完成。
📝 词汇精讲：
It's not until... that...：直到……才……（强调某事必须先发生，后面的结果才会出现）
The reality is that most of what people call money is actually credit.
事实是，人们所称的大部分货币实际上是信贷。
📝 词汇精讲：
what people call money：人们称为货币的东西
The total amount of credit in the United States is about $50 trillion and the total amount of money is only about $3 trillion.
美国的信贷总额约为50万亿美元，而货币总额仅约为3万亿美元。
Remember, in an economy without credit, the only way to increase your spending is to produce more.
记住，在没有信贷的经济中，增加支出的唯一方法就是生产更多。
But in an economy with credit, you can also increase your spending by borrowing.
但在有信贷的经济中，你也可以通过借钱来增加支出。
As a result, an economy with credit has more spending and allows incomes to rise faster than productivity over the short run, but not over the long run.
因此，有信贷的经济在短期内支出更多，收入增长速度快于生产力，但长期来看并非如此。
Now, don't get me wrong, credit isn't necessarily something bad that just causes cycles.
别误会，信贷不一定是坏事，也不只会导致经济周期。
It's bad when it finances over-consumption that can't be paid back.
当信贷资助无法偿还的过度消费时，它就是有害的。
However, it's good when it efficiently allocates resources and produces income, so you can pay back the debt.
然而，当信贷能够高效分配资源并产生收入，使你能够偿还债务时，它就是有益的。
For example, if you borrow money to buy a big TV, it doesn't generate income for you to pay back the debt.
例如，如果你借钱买一台大电视，它不会为你产生收入来偿还债务。
But, if you borrow money to say buy a tractor — and that tractor let's you harvest more crops and earn more money — then, you can pay back your debt and improve your living standards.
In an economy with credit, we can follow the transactions and see how credit creates growth.
在有信贷的经济中，我们可以追踪交易，看到信贷如何促进增长。
Let me give you an example: Suppose you earn $100,000 a year and have no debt.
让我举个例子：假设你年收入10万美元，没有负债。
You are creditworthy enough to borrow $10,000 dollars - say on a credit card - so you can spend $110,000 dollars even though you only earn $100,000 dollars.
你有足够的信用资格借到1万美元——比如用信用卡——这样你即使只赚10万美元，也能花费11万美元。
Since your spending is another person's income, someone is earning $110,000 dollars.
因为你的支出是别人的收入，所以有人赚了11万美元。
The person earning $110,000 dollars with no debt can borrow $11,000 dollars, so he can spend $121,000 dollars, even though he has only earned $110,000 dollars.
And since one person's spending is another person's income, incomes drop...and so on and so forth.
而且由于一个人的支出就是另一个人的收入，收入也会下降……如此循环往复。
When people spend less, prices go down. We call this deflation.
当人们减少支出时，物价就会下降。我们把这叫作“通货紧缩”。
Economic activity decreases and we have a recession.
经济活动减少，我们就会陷入经济衰退。
📝 词汇精讲：
re·ces·sion /rɪˈseʃ(ə)n/ （经济的）衰退（期）
If the recession becomes too severe and inflation is no longer a problem, the central bank will lower interest rates to cause everything to pick up again.
如果经济衰退变得过于严重，而通货膨胀已经不再是问题，中央银行就会降低利率，让一切重新好转起来。
📝 词汇精讲：
pick up：恢复，改善：指情况、状况或状态的恢复或改善。
With low interest rates, debt repayments are reduced and borrowing and spending pick up and we see another expansion.
在低利率的情况下，偿还债务的压力减轻，借贷和消费开始回升，我们会看到另一个经济扩张阶段。
As you can see, the economy works like a machine.
如你所见，经济的运作就像一台机器。
In the short term debt cycle, spending is constrained only by the willingness of lenders and borrowers to provide and receive credit.
在短期债务周期中，支出仅受限于放贷人和借款人是否愿意提供和接受信贷。
📝 词汇精讲：
be constrained by：受限于：被某种条件、规则或限制所束缚，无法自由行动或发展。
When credit is easily available, there's an economic expansion.
当信贷容易获得时，经济就会扩张。
When credit isn't easily available, there's a recession.
当信贷不容易获得时，经济就会衰退。
And note that this cycle is controlled primarily by the central bank.
请注意，这个周期主要由中央银行控制。
The short term debt cycle typically lasts 5 - 8 years and happens over and over again for decades.
短期债务周期通常持续5到8年，并且数十年反复发生。
But notice that the bottom and top of each cycle finish with more growth than the previous cycle and with more debt.
但请注意，每个周期的低谷和高峰相比前一个周期，都会带来更多的增长和更多的债务。
Why? Because people push it — they have an inclination to borrow and spend more instead of paying back debt. It's human nature.
为什么会这样？因为人们会推动这一过程——他们倾向于多借钱、多消费，而不是还债。这是人性使然。
📝 词汇精讲：
in·clin·ation /ˌɪnklɪˈneɪʃ(ə)n/ ~ to do sth：a tendency to do sth 趋向；趋势
Because of this, over long periods of time, debts rise faster than incomes, creating the Long Term Debt Cycle.
正因为如此，在较长的一段时间里，债务增长的速度快于收入，从而形成了长期债务周期。
Despite people becoming more indebted, lenders even more freely extend credit.
尽管人们债务越来越多，贷款人却更加自由地发放信贷。
📝 词汇精讲：
in·debt·ed /ɪnˈdetɪd/ owing money to other countries or organizations 负债的
extend credit：提供信贷
Why? Because everybody thinks things are going great!
为什么？因为每个人都觉得一切都很好！
People are just focusing on what's been happening lately.
人们只是专注于最近发生的事情。
And what has been happening lately? Incomes have been rising! Asset values are going up! The stock market roars! It's a boom!
那最近发生了什么呢？收入一直在增长！资产价值在上升！股市在咆哮！这是一个繁荣期！
📝 词汇精讲：
roar /rɔːr/ [V] to make a very loud, deep sound 吼叫；咆哮
boom /buːm/ [N] a sudden increase in trade and economic activity; a period of wealth and success （贸易和经济活动的）激增，繁荣
It pays to buy goods, services, and financial assets with borrowed money!
用借来的钱去购买商品、服务和金融资产是划算的！
📝 词汇精讲：
it pays to...：值得：表示某种行为或决策是明智或有益的。
When people do a lot of that, we call it a bubble.
当人们大量这样做时，我们称之为“泡沫”。
So even though debts have been growing, incomes have been growing nearly as fast to offset them.
所以，尽管债务在不断增加，但收入也几乎以同样的速度增长，从而抵消了债务的影响。
📝 词汇精讲：
offset：抵消，中和
Let's call the ratio of debt-to-income the debt burden.
我们把债务与收入的比率称为“债务负担”。
📝 词汇精讲：
the ratio of debt-to-income：（通常写作 debt-to-income ratio）债务与收入的比例
So long as incomes continue to rise, the debt burden stays manageable.
只要收入持续上升，债务负担就还能承受。
📝 词汇精讲：
So long as...：表示“只要……就……”，类似于 as long as
例：So long as you work hard, you’ll succeed. 只要你努力工作，就会成功。
man·age·able /ˈmænɪdʒəbl/possible to deal with or control 可操纵的；可处理的
例：The debt has been reduced to a more manageable level. 债务减到了比较能够应付的程度。
At the same time asset valuessoar.
与此同时，资产价值飞涨。
📝 词汇精讲：
asset values：资产价值，指房地产、股票等金融或实物资产的市场价格。
soar /sɔːr/(value, amount or level of sth) rise very quickly 急升；猛增剧烈上升、飞涨
People borrow huge amounts of money to buy assets as investments, causing their prices to rise even higher.
人们借大量的钱来购买资产作为投资，导致这些资产价格进一步上涨。
People feel wealthy. So even with the accumulation of lots of debt, rising incomes and asset values help borrowers remain creditworthy for a long time.
